Election Day is tomorrow, and I can't be more excited. And nervous. And freaked out. And edgy. And giddy. There's a reason why Tom and I went as political junkies for Halloween (picture to be posted later). We've been all but consumed with this election. I have never watched MSNBC this much in my entire life. Pollster is my new favorite electoral polling crack site, though my co-worker Ron has turned me onto 270 To Win, which has its charms as well.
A lot of people say and have said that this is the most important election in a generation, and I would have to agree with them. It has been such highs and lows. Remember when the front runners were Hillary Clinton and Guiliani? That's a million years ago, right? No. And now, it's down to one Senator who had to fly commercial for a while since his campaign was strapped for cash (McCain) and the junior senator from Illinois with a funny name (Obama). It's pretty incredible that it all ends tomorrow. Hopefully.
I have been temperating my optimism about Obama and the failure of Prop 8. I don't want to get my hopes up. They were up in 2000 and again in 2004. Now, things look a lot better for Obama than it for Kerry in 2004, but I'm still keeping a lid on my feelings, trying not to get ahead of myself.
Here are the four scenarios for tomorrow:
1. Awesome: Obama Wins, Prop 8 Fails.
Obama does something close to a sweep, carrying a lot of the swing states in play: Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. This swelling up of optimism sweeps the land, and people out here in California get caught up in the feeling-good, and vote down a discriminatory amendment. Bottles of champagne are popped and there is much cheering coming from our building in northeastern Los Angeles.
2. Good Not Great: Obama Wins, Prop 8 Passes.
Obama wins, but Prop 8 ends up barely passing. While I would be severely bummed about the passage of a state constitutional amendment that strips my rights away from me, at least we would have a federal government that is the most gay-friendly in the history of United States. We can then push for a repeal of Prop 8 for 2009.
3. Not Good: McCain Wins, Prop 8 Fails
McCain wins back the swing states and gains New Hampshire, which would give him a victory by a very slim margin. But, the failure of Prop 8 means that if Tom and I drink ourselves into a stupor to deal with a McCain presidency, we can at least visit each other in the hospital without any problems.
4. Oh Shit: McCain Wins, Prop 8 Passes
McCain wins the swing states, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (for some odd reason). The so-called Bradley Effect seriously kicks in, and Obama loses rather significantly based on his lead. The major right-wingers in CA, flush with Mormon money, pack the polls and Prop 8 passes. This scenario could possibly lead to my becoming an alcoholic, since I would need to suckle at the Smirnoff teat to help deaden the pain.
In all seriousness, I do think that we should keep an eye on a few states. The first is New Hampshire, the only New England state where McCain stands a chance to win. They like him a lot, even going back to his 2000 campaign If this small state goes for Obama pretty quickly, that's a good sign that Obama could sew this up pretty quickly. If New Hampshire takes a while for Obama to win, things for Obama will be a lot tighter as the evening goes on but should end well. If McCain wins New Hampshire, then things will be very, very close.
The next state is North Carolina. The state's been solidly red for over a generation until Obama came along. If he wins NC, then other southern states might follow. If McCain wins North Carolina, then he could possibly take it. Possibly.
Tom, myself and a couple of our neighbors are planning on hitting the polls right at 7am tomorrow morning then going off for breakfast. I will probably be a basketcase for most of the day, to be honest. Tomorrow night, we will join the neighbors for an election party, watching the results with bated breath.
I really, really hope Obama wins. We really need him right now. The economy is in the shitter due to Republican mismanagement. The war in Iraq needs to end and end quickly. We need to repair our standing in the world after 8 years of arrogance and stupidity. I want this over with. I want Bush out of office. He will go down in history as one of the worst presidents we've ever had. We went from surpluses to deficits, enthusiasm to apathy, peace to war, elation to anxiety, and flush to broke. We need change. And that's what Obama brings.
I hope things go our way tomorrow. I really do.
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